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Poisson model favours Hradec Králové (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Teplice face Hradec Králové.

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Match Analysis

Teplice host Hradec Králové at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Teplice — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Teplice haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Teplice's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hradec Králové haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Hradec Králové away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hradec Králové are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Head to Head

Hradec Králové have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 7 of the last 10 encounters against Teplice's 2 victories.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 10 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Hradec Králové winning.

It is worth noting that Hradec Králové have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Teplice in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).

Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 51% versus Hradec Králové 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 43% | Hradec Králové 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.12 xG and Hradec Králové 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.859 / defence 0.965 | Hradec Králové attack 1.023 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Teplice games / 30 Hradec Králové games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Teplice 34% | Draw 30% | Hradec Králové 37%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Hradec Králové 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 40% | Hradec Králové 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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