🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Slovácko at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Slovácko welcome Teplice to Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Slovácko haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Slovácko's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Teplice haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Teplice have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Slovácko at 1.30 PPG versus Teplice's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Slovácko register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Teplice in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Slovácko have won 4, Teplice 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Slovácko in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Teplice in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 43% versus Teplice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 51% | Teplice 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.41 xG and Teplice 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.995 / defence 1.102 | Teplice attack 0.994 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Slovácko games / 30 Teplice games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Slovácko 38% | Draw 27% | Teplice 34%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Teplice 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 60% | Teplice 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights