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Poisson model favours Hradec Králové (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slovácko face Hradec Králové.

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Full Analysis

Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty plays host to Slovácko versus Hradec Králové in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Slovácko have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Slovácko haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty, Slovácko have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Hradec Králové's overall Czech Liga record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hradec Králové haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Hradec Králové's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Hradec Králové arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Slovácko 3W, Hradec Králové 5W, 2D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 1–3 with Hradec Králové winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Slovácko half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Hradec Králové half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 43% versus Hradec Králové 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 51% | Hradec Králové 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.30 xG and Hradec Králové 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.995 / defence 1.102 | Hradec Králové attack 1.024 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Slovácko games / 30 Hradec Králové games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Slovácko 35% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 38%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Hradec Králové 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Slovácko 60% | Hradec Králové 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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