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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slavia Praha face Baník Ostrava.

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Analysis & Preview

A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Baník Ostrava travel to Fortuna Arena to take on Slavia Praha. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026, 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Slavia Praha stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Slavia Praha haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Slavia Praha have posted 9W 1D 0L at Fortuna Arena — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Fortuna Arena than their overall form suggests.

Baník Ostrava — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Baník Ostrava haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Baník Ostrava away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Slavia Praha: 10 wins from 10 previous clashes against 0 for Baník Ostrava, with 0 draws across those contests.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Slavia Praha winning.

The historical record gives Slavia Praha a meaningful edge here — 10 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Slavia Praha trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Baník Ostrava trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 59% versus Baník Ostrava 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 59% | Baník Ostrava 35%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.77 xG and Baník Ostrava 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.120 / defence 0.882 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.924 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Slavia Praha games / 30 Baník Ostrava games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 55% | Draw 25% | Baník Ostrava 20%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Baník Ostrava 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Slavia Praha 50% | Baník Ostrava 50%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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