Pardubice vs Hradec Králové – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 33%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Hradec Králové travel to Stadion Arnosta Kostala to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 April 2027, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice at Stadion Arnosta Kostala this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Hradec Králové have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hradec Králové are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Pardubice have won 4, Hradec Králové 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2026, ended 1–2 with Hradec Králové winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Pardubice trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 71% versus Hradec Králové 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 56% | Hradec Králové 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.11 xG and Hradec Králové 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.877 / defence 1.100 | Hradec Králové attack 0.802 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.261. Data: 39 Pardubice games / 39 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 33% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 33%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Hradec Králové 3.03. The draw (33%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 33% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Pardubice 80% | Hradec Králové 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 33% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Pardubice 1.11 / Hradec Králové 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.877 / def 1.100 | Hradec Králové attack 0.802 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Draw (33%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Hradec Králové xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Pardubice vs Hradec Králové is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
Where is Pardubice vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Hradec Králové part of?
Pardubice vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 33% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pardubice and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Hradec Králové?
Record (10 meetings): Pardubice 4W | Draws 3 | Hradec Králové 3W.
What form are Pardubice and Hradec Králové in?
Pardubice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pardubice's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
33%
3.00
33%
3.01
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.22
1.11
Hradec Králové xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
11%
9.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.11 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 33%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Pardubice have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 14W 10D 17L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové's form line: 20W 9D 12L from 41 games, 1.68 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hradec Králové are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pardubice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pardubice have posted 1.20 PPG from 20 outings (6W 6D 8L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 7W 4D 9L from 20 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.34 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 14W 10D 17L in their last 41 games (1.27 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 20W 9D 12L in their last 41 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Hradec Králové away?
Hradec Králové's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.20 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Hradec Králové won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
3
Draws
3
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 4, Hradec Králové have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Hradec Králové?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pardubice at 75%, Hradec Králové at 55%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pardubice) and 45% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Pardubice's games and 55% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pardubice's recent games and 45% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.