Dukla Praha 1-1 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Sparta Praha travel to Stadion Juliska to take on Dukla Praha. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dukla Praha — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha's home record at Stadion Juliska: 3W 0D 4L from 7 Czech Liga appearances (1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sparta Praha have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sparta Praha have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dukla Praha at 0.80 PPG versus Sparta Praha's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dukla Praha, 1 for Sparta Praha and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Sparta Praha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 40% versus Sparta Praha 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 53% | Sparta Praha 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 0.99 xG and Sparta Praha 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.797 / defence 1.232 | Sparta Praha attack 1.247 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.196. Dukla Praha's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.247 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 Dukla Praha games / 45 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 18% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 55%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 5.56 | Draw 3.85 | Sparta Praha 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Dukla Praha 43% | Sparta Praha 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 18% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Dukla Praha 0.99 / Sparta Praha 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 0.797 / def 1.232 | Sparta Praha attack 1.247 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Sparta Praha xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha?
Dukla Praha 1 - 1 Sparta Praha.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha part of?
Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 18% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 55% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha?
Record (1 meetings): Dukla Praha 0W | Draws 0 | Sparta Praha 1W.
What form are Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Sparta Praha (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dukla Praha's attack rating (0.80) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Praha's attack versus Dukla Praha's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
18%
5.42
26%
3.83
55%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.83
1.84
Sparta Praha xG
5.42
18%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
1.80
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
16%
6.28
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
3%
34.03
20%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.84 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Dukla Praha have picked up 0.73 PPG on a 3W 2D 10L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha's form line: 8W 3D 4L from 15 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dukla Praha.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dukla Praha have posted 1.29 PPG from 7 outings (3W 0D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 0.73 PPG overall — Dukla Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 4W 1D 2L from 7 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.80 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha in 73%.
Last 15 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 3W 2D 10L in their last 15 games (0.73 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 8W 3D 4L in their last 15 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 1.29 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sparta Praha have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jan 2026, when Sparta Praha won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dukla Praha's record when hosting Sparta Praha specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dukla Praha
1
Draws
3
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha?
From 4 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 0, Sparta Praha have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Dukla Praha 0-3 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dukla Praha see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dukla Praha 43%, Sparta Praha 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Dukla Praha) and 57% (Sparta Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 57% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dukla Praha vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Dukla Praha's matches and 57% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 17, as Dukla Praha and Sparta Praha drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 0.99 xG and Sparta Praha 1.84 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sparta Praha landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 0.80 / defence 1.23 against Sparta Praha attack 1.25 / defence 0.84, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 18% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 55%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 53%, Sparta Praha 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.