Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 35%, yet in-form Teplice provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bohemians 1905 vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Dolicek plays host to Bohemians 1905 versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 24 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.

Current Form

Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Bohemians 1905 at Dolicek this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dolicek.

Teplice (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Teplice's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Teplice arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Bohemians 1905 3W, Teplice 4W, 3D.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2026, ended 1–3 with Teplice winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 42% versus Teplice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bohemians 1905 42% | Teplice 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.21 xG and Teplice 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.905 / defence 0.781 | Teplice attack 1.205 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.261. Teplice have an above-average attack strength of 1.205 — the away xG of 1.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Bohemians 1905's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Bohemians 1905 games / 39 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 35% | Draw 32% | Teplice 34%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Teplice 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Teplice (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Teplice 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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