Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Bohemians 1905 take on Slovan Liberec.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec meet at Dolicek in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dolicek, Bohemians 1905 have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dolicek.
Slovan Liberec have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slovan Liberec are 0.80 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 in recent Czech Liga fixtures (2.00 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bohemians 1905 lead 3W to 2W over the last 10 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 10 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Slovan Liberec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 42% versus Slovan Liberec 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bohemians 1905 42% | Slovan Liberec 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 0.90 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.904 / defence 0.779 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.929 / defence 0.698. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.261. Slovan Liberec's defence strength of 0.698 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bohemians 1905's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Bohemians 1905 games / 39 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 37% | Slovan Liberec 32%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.23 | Draw 2.70 | Slovan Liberec 3.12. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.81 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 40% | Slovan Liberec 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Dolicek • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 31% | Draw 37% | Slovan Liberec 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 38% | xG Bohemians 1905 0.90 / Slovan Liberec 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.904 / def 0.779 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.929 / def 0.698 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Slovan Liberec xG
38%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Dolicek.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Dolicek.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 31% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 32% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec?
Record (10 meetings): Bohemians 1905 3W | Draws 5 | Slovan Liberec 2W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.90) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.93x) against Bohemians 1905's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.22
37%
2.70
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
1.81
0.91
Slovan Liberec xG
3.22
31%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
13%
7.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 14.9 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 0.91 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bohemians 1905 come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 9D 18L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.48 PPG from 40 outings (16W 11D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.48 for Slovan Liberec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bohemians 1905's home form reads 6W 5D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 1.53 points per game from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.25 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Slovan Liberec in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 13W 9D 18L in their last 40 games (1.20 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 16W 11D 13L in their last 40 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Slovan Liberec's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.21 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Slovan Liberec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Slovan Liberec in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians 1905 won 4-1 on 4 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians 1905
5
Draws
2
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, Slovan Liberec have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians 1905 see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 37%, Slovan Liberec 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Bohemians 1905) and 53% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Slovan Liberec in 32%; Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 37% of games; Slovan Liberec in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 53% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 53% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.