Wuhan Zall 2-1 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Wuhan Zall welcome Dalian Aerbin to Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 12 August 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Wuhan Zall have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Zall's home record at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium: 0W 3D 2L from 5 Super League appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dalian Aerbin stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Dalian Aerbin have posted 1W 0D 4L from 5 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Wuhan Zall) versus 0.70 (Dalian Aerbin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Wuhan Zall, 0 for Dalian Aerbin and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Wuhan Zall trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Dalian Aerbin trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Zall 58% versus Dalian Aerbin 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Zall 42% | Dalian Aerbin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 1.27 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 0.834 / defence 1.153 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.867 / defence 1.405. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.299. Dalian Aerbin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.405 — this is suppressing Wuhan Zall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Wuhan Zall games / 12 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 33% | Draw 32% | Dalian Aerbin 35%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Dalian Aerbin 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Wuhan Zall 60% | Dalian Aerbin 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Aug 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 33% | Draw 32% | Dalian Aerbin 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Wuhan Zall 1.27 / Dalian Aerbin 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 0.834 / def 1.153 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.867 / def 1.405 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Dalian Aerbin xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 11:30 on Thursday 12 August 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin?
Wuhan Zall 2 - 1 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 33% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (1 meetings): Wuhan Zall 0W | Draws 1 | Dalian Aerbin 0W.
What form are Wuhan Zall and Dalian Aerbin in?
Wuhan Zall (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wuhan Zall's attack at 0.83x the league average against Dalian Aerbin's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus Wuhan Zall's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
33%
2.99
32%
3.14
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
2.57
1.30
Dalian Aerbin xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
9%
10.94
10%
10.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 1.30 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wuhan Zall's recent record stands at 0W 7D 5L from 12 games, a 0.58 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Wuhan Zall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dalian Aerbin, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 9L across 12 games — 0.58 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wuhan Zall on 0.58 PPG, Dalian Aerbin on 0.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wuhan Zall have managed 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — 0.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dalian Aerbin's away record stands at 1W 0D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Wuhan Zall are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 0.83 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Zall and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Wuhan Zall have gone 0W 7D 5L in their last 12 games (0.58 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 2W 1D 9L in their last 12 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Zall at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Wuhan Zall's home record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Zall at home: 0.60 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wuhan Zall and Dalian Aerbin runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Dec 2022, when Wuhan Zall won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wuhan Zall's record when hosting Dalian Aerbin specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Wuhan Zall
1
Draws
1
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Dalian Aerbin?
From 4 meetings on record, Wuhan Zall have won 2, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 23 December 2022, when Wuhan Zall 3-0 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Zall and Dalian Aerbin?
Wuhan Zall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Zall 60%, Dalian Aerbin 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Wuhan Zall) and 60% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Zall have failed to score in 40% of games; Dalian Aerbin in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Zall play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Wuhan Zall's recent matches and 40% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Wuhan Zall's recent games and 60% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Zall and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Wuhan Zall have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wuhan Zall defy the odds to beat Dalian Aerbin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Zall beat Dalian Aerbin 2-1 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 1.27 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.30 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 0.83 / defence 1.15 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.87 / defence 1.41, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 33% | Draw 32% | Dalian Aerbin 35%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Wuhan Zall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Zall 42%, Dalian Aerbin 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Zall 0.58 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 0.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wuhan Zall win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.