Wuhan Zall 0-2 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wuhan Zall and Beijing Guoan meet at Suzhou City Sports Centre in Super League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Monday 10 May 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 1.25 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 0.961 / defence 1.374 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.812 / defence 1.504. League average goals — home 0.864 / away 1.276. Beijing Guoan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.504 — this is suppressing Wuhan Zall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Wuhan Zall games / 3 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 29% | Draw 33% | Beijing Guoan 37%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Beijing Guoan 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beijing Guoan at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Suzhou City Sports Centre • Kick-off: Monday 10 May 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 29% | Draw 33% | Beijing Guoan 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG Wuhan Zall 1.25 / Beijing Guoan 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 0.961 / def 1.374 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.812 / def 1.504 | league avg home 0.864 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Beijing Guoan xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 10 May 2021 at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan?
Wuhan Zall 0 - 2 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 29% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Beijing Guoan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wuhan Zall and Beijing Guoan in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wuhan Zall's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (0.81x) against Wuhan Zall's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
29%
3.41
33%
3.01
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
2.67
1.42
Beijing Guoan xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
7%
14.16
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 1.42 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Pre-Season
Beijing Guoan
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Beijing Guoan have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 1-4 on 17 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Zall have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Wuhan Zall
0
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Beijing Guoan?
From 4 meetings on record, Wuhan Zall have won 0, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 13 November 2022, when Beijing Guoan 3-1 Wuhan Zall.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Zall and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wuhan Zall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Wuhan Zall 0-2 at Suzhou City Sports Centre, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 1.25 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.42 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wuhan Zall fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 0.96 / defence 1.37 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.81 / defence 1.50, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 29% | Draw 33% | Beijing Guoan 37%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.