Tianjin Teda 1-6 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host SHANGHAI SIPG at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 22 April 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 0.83 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.854 / away 1.837. Data: 0 Tianjin Teda games / 0 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 14% | Draw 29% | SHANGHAI SIPG 57%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 7.14 | Draw 3.45 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.75. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (57%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Apr 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 14% | Draw 29% | SHANGHAI SIPG 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Tianjin Teda 0.83 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.854 / away 1.837 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.80
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 13:00 on Thursday 22 April 2021 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 6 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 14% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 57% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.85) and SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
14%
7.23
29%
3.42
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.63
1.80
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
7.23
14%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
17%
6.03
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
2%
43.57
25%
4.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 12.9 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.80 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Pre-Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2021, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Tianjin Teda
3
Draws
6
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 1-6 hammering of Tianjin Teda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Tianjin Teda 1-6 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 0.83 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.80 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.80 projection by 4.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 14% | Draw 29% | SHANGHAI SIPG 57%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.