Tianjin Teda 1-0 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Meizhou Kejia at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium plays host to Tianjin Teda versus Meizhou Kejia in Super League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 25 June 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tianjin Teda have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Tianjin Teda, 0 for Meizhou Kejia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jun 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.10 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.897 / defence 1.151 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.842 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.152. Data: 19 Tianjin Teda games / 5 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 33% | Draw 33% | Meizhou Kejia 34%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Meizhou Kejia 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Meizhou Kejia are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jun 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 33% | Draw 33% | Meizhou Kejia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.10 / Meizhou Kejia 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.897 / def 1.151 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.842 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Meizhou Kejia (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Meizhou Kejia xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 25 June 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 0 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 33% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Meizhou Kejia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (1 meetings): Tianjin Teda 0W | Draws 1 | Meizhou Kejia 0W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Tianjin Teda home split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.90x the league average against Meizhou Kejia's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (0.84x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 19/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Meizhou Kejia Win
33%
3.04
33%
3.00
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.21
1.12
Meizhou Kejia xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
11%
9.29
11%
8.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.12 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Pre-Season
Meizhou Kejia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 June 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
4
Draws
1
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 29 June 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 1-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Tianjin Teda defy the odds to beat Meizhou Kejia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Meizhou Kejia 1-0 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.10 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.12 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Meizhou Kejia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.84 / defence 0.94, drawn from 19/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 33% | Draw 33% | Meizhou Kejia 34%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.