Tianjin Teda 1-4 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Changchun Yatai at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Changchun Yatai at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 28 July 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 1W 2D 4L from 7 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.71 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.57 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Tianjin Teda have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Tianjin Teda's home record at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium: 1W 0D 3L from 4 Super League appearances (0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Changchun Yatai have recorded 3W 3D 1L from 7 outings — 1.71 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 0.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.43 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 7 games (71%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Changchun Yatai have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Changchun Yatai — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.71 vs 0.71). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Tianjin Teda register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Changchun Yatai in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Tianjin Teda have won 0, Changchun Yatai 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Changchun Yatai in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 43% versus Changchun Yatai 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Tianjin Teda 43% | Changchun Yatai 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.09 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.931 / defence 1.609 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.847 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 1.141. Data: 7 Tianjin Teda games / 7 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 23% | Draw 33% | Changchun Yatai 44%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 4.35 | Draw 3.03 | Changchun Yatai 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Changchun Yatai at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 75% | Changchun Yatai 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jul 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 23% | Draw 33% | Changchun Yatai 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.09 / Changchun Yatai 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.931 / def 1.609 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.847 / def 1.188 | league avg home 0.986 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Changchun Yatai xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 28 July 2021 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 4 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 23% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai?
Record (1 meetings): Tianjin Teda 0W | Draws 1 | Changchun Yatai 0W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-3D-1L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 0.43 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (0.93) and Changchun Yatai's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
23%
4.34
33%
3.08
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.65
1.56
Changchun Yatai xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.08
33%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
5%
20.57
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.56 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 1W 2D 4L from 7 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 1L across 7 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Changchun Yatai by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Tianjin Teda are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 0.86 scored and 0.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai in 29%.
Defensively: Changchun Yatai in 71% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Early Season
Changchun Yatai
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Changchun Yatai's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.00 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 71%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Jul 2021, when Changchun Yatai won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
6
Draws
1
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Changchun Yatai have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Tianjin Teda 2-2 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Tianjin Teda at 67%, Changchun Yatai at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Tianjin Teda and 67% for Changchun Yatai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai in 33%; Tianjin Teda have failed to score in 33% of games; Changchun Yatai in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Tianjin Teda's games and 67% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 67% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Changchun Yatai run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Tianjin Teda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Tianjin Teda 1-4 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.09 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.56 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Changchun Yatai outscored their 1.56 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.93 / defence 1.61 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.85 / defence 1.19, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 23% | Draw 33% | Changchun Yatai 44%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 43%, Changchun Yatai 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Changchun Yatai arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.