Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shenzhen Ruby FC at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC meet at Tianhe Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 August 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 1W 2D 3L at Tianhe Stadium — 0.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Shenzhen Ruby FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record: 4W 0D 2L from 6 road trips in Super League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shenzhen Ruby FC are 1.10 PPG clear of Shijiazhuang Y. J. in recent Super League fixtures (1.70 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Shijiazhuang Y. J., 1 for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2021, ended 1–2 with Shenzhen Ruby FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Shenzhen Ruby FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 42% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.91 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.686 / defence 1.177 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.306 / defence 1.332. League average goals — home 0.998 / away 1.278. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack strength of 0.686 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.332 — this is suppressing Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shenzhen Ruby FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.306 — the away xG of 1.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 12 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 12 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 14% | Draw 27% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 59%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 7.14 | Draw 3.70 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Shenzhen Ruby FC (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shenzhen Ruby FC are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 17% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tianhe Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 14% | Draw 27% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.91 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.686 / def 1.177 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.306 / def 1.332 | league avg home 0.998 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Shenzhen Ruby FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Tianhe Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2 - 1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Tianhe Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 14% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 59% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shenzhen Ruby FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (1 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W | Draws 0 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack (1.31x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.9%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenzhen Ruby FC Win
14%
7.26
27%
3.66
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.88
1.96
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
7.26
14%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
14%
7.13
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
2%
51.73
24%
4.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.96 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 1W 4D 7L from 12 games, a 0.58 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shenzhen Ruby FC, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 3L across 12 games — 1.75 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shenzhen Ruby FC by 1.17 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shijiazhuang Y. J. heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record stands at 4W 0D 2L across 6 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shenzhen Ruby FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 4D 7L in their last 12 games (0.58 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 0.83 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Shenzhen Ruby FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
0
Draws
3
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 3, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2023, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 17%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 83% (Shenzhen Ruby FC).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 67% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 83% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shijiazhuang Y. J. defy the odds to beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1 at Tianhe Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.91 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.96 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shenzhen Ruby FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.69 / defence 1.18 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.31 / defence 1.33, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 14% | Draw 27% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 59%, with Shenzhen Ruby FC to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Shijiazhuang Y. J. win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 42%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shenzhen Ruby FC arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.58. Form was overturned, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.