Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-0 Qingdao Huanghai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as Shijiazhuang Y. J. take on Qingdao Huanghai.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Huanghai meet at Huadu Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 July 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s overall Super League record this term: 0W 3D 4L from 7 games (0.43 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.57 goals per game and conceding 1.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Shijiazhuang Y. J. have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form when playing at home: 0W 1D 2L across 3 games at Huadu Stadium this term (0.33 PPG).
Qingdao Huanghai (all games): 2W 1D 4L across 7 Super League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 14% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Qingdao Huanghai have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Qingdao Huanghai's away record: 0W 1D 2L from 3 road trips in Super League this season (0.33 PPG). Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Qingdao Huanghai are the stronger side — 0.57 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.43). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Shijiazhuang Y. J. have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, Qingdao Huanghai in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W, Qingdao Huanghai 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2021, ended 1–2 with Qingdao Huanghai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Qingdao Huanghai — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 71% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 43% | Qingdao Huanghai 14%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 43% | Qingdao Huanghai 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.76 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.683 / defence 1.192 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.604 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 0.874 / away 1.167. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack strength of 0.683 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Qingdao Huanghai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 7 Qingdao Huanghai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 26% | Draw 43% | Qingdao Huanghai 31%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.85 | Draw 2.33 | Qingdao Huanghai 3.23. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.60. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.60 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 22% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0% | Qingdao Huanghai 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Huanghai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Huadu Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 26% | Draw 43% | Qingdao Huanghai 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 34% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.76 / Qingdao Huanghai 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.683 / def 1.192 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.604 / def 1.277 | league avg home 0.874 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Draw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Qingdao Huanghai xG
34%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Huanghai kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Huanghai kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Huadu Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2 - 0 Qingdao Huanghai.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Huanghai being played?
The match is being played at Huadu Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Huanghai part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Huanghai is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 26% chance of winning, Qingdao Huanghai a 31% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Huanghai will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Huanghai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Huanghai?
Record (1 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Huanghai 1W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Huanghai in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 0W-3D-4L in 7 | 0.43 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 1.43 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Qingdao Huanghai (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.43 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.68x the league average against Qingdao Huanghai's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 0.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Qingdao Huanghai's attack (0.60x) against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.81
43%
2.33
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
1.60
0.84
Qingdao Huanghai xG
3.81
26%
Home win
2.33
43%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
14%
6.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.1 | 16.9 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.8%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Huanghai expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0.84 for Qingdao Huanghai, a combined total of 1.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 0W 3D 4L from 7 games, a 0.43 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Qingdao Huanghai, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 4L across 7 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Qingdao Huanghai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Qingdao Huanghai by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shijiazhuang Y. J. heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Qingdao Huanghai's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Huanghai's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Huanghai are on 0.43 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Qingdao Huanghai in 14%.
Last 7 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Early Season
Qingdao Huanghai
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Huanghai in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 games (0.43 PPG), while Qingdao Huanghai have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Qingdao Huanghai away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 0.33 PPG; Qingdao Huanghai away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 July 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
0
Draws
1
Qingdao Huanghai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Huanghai?
From 2 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Qingdao Huanghai have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Huanghai last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2021, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-0 Qingdao Huanghai.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Qingdao Huanghai see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 0% (Qingdao Huanghai) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0% for Qingdao Huanghai.
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Qingdao Huanghai in 33%; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 100% of games; Qingdao Huanghai in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Qingdao Huanghai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Qingdao Huanghai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 0% of Qingdao Huanghai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Qingdao Huanghai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 0% of Qingdao Huanghai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Qingdao Huanghai tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Qingdao Huanghai in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Qingdao Huanghai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Qingdao Huanghai 2-0 at Huadu Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0.76 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 0.84 xG, a combined 1.60. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Qingdao Huanghai landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.68 / defence 1.19 against Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.60 / defence 1.28, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 26% | Draw 43% | Qingdao Huanghai 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. The actual Shijiazhuang Y. J. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 43%, Qingdao Huanghai 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Qingdao Huanghai's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 71% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Qingdao Huanghai arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.43. Form was overturned, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.