Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-0 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Chengdu Better City travel to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium to take on Shijiazhuang Y. J.. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 June 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 5W 2D 3L at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Chengdu Better City — All Games: 1W 1D 0L from 2 Super League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Chengdu Better City have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.70 PPG, Chengdu Better City 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.55 xG and Chengdu Better City 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.928 / defence 1.007 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.720 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.133. Data: 16 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 2 Chengdu Better City games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 55% | Draw 26% | Chengdu Better City 20%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Chengdu Better City 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Shijiazhuang Y. J. (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jun 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 55% | Draw 26% | Chengdu Better City 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.55 / Chengdu Better City 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.928 / def 1.007 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.720 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Chengdu Better City xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 12 June 2022 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 0 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 55% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack at 0.93x the league average against Chengdu Better City's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chengdu Better City's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (16/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.91
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.37
0.82
Chengdu Better City xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
24%
4.16
4%
23.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0.82 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chengdu Better City, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 0L across 2 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shijiazhuang Y. J. heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Chengdu Better City in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Early Season
Chengdu Better City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2024, when Chengdu Better City won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Chengdu Better City specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
2
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, Chengdu Better City have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 30 June 2024, when Chengdu Better City 4-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Chengdu Better City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 50% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 0% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City finished level at 0-0 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.55 xG and Chengdu Better City 0.82 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Chengdu Better City landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.93 / defence 1.01 against Chengdu Better City attack 0.72 / defence 1.19, drawn from 16/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 55% | Draw 26% | Chengdu Better City 20%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0%, Chengdu Better City 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shijiazhuang Y. J. managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Chengdu Better City managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.