Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Shenzhen Ruby FC take on Henan Jianye.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Shenzhen Ruby FC welcome Henan Jianye to Tianhe Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 July 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 4W 2D 1L from 7 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.86 goals per game, with 1.14 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Shenzhen Ruby FC have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Tianhe Stadium, Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 1W 2D 0L this season (3 games, 1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Henan Jianye — All Games: 1W 4D 2L from 7 Super League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 1.14 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Henan Jianye have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 1L across 3 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shenzhen Ruby FC register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Henan Jianye in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shenzhen Ruby FC, 0 for Henan Jianye and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2021, ended 2–1 with Shenzhen Ruby FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shenzhen Ruby FC 57% and Henan Jianye 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shenzhen Ruby FC 71% | Henan Jianye 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.19 xG and Henan Jianye 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.095 / defence 1.139 | Henan Jianye attack 0.788 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 0.869 / away 1.186. Henan Jianye bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Shenzhen Ruby FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Shenzhen Ruby FC games / 7 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 35% | Draw 37% | Henan Jianye 29%. Fair-value odds: Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | Henan Jianye 3.45. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Shenzhen Ruby FC 67% | Henan Jianye 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Tianhe Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shenzhen Ruby FC 35% | Draw 37% | Henan Jianye 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 50% | xG Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.19 / Henan Jianye 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.095 / def 1.139 | Henan Jianye attack 0.788 / def 1.248 | league avg home 0.869 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Henan Jianye xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Tianhe Stadium.
What was the final score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye?
Shenzhen Ruby FC 0 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Tianhe Stadium.
What competition is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye part of?
Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Shenzhen Ruby FC a 35% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 29% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye?
Record (1 meetings): Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W | Draws 0 | Henan Jianye 0W.
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye in?
Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.86 / GA 1.14 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 1W-4D-2L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.14 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack rating (1.09) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.88
37%
2.73
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
Total xG
2.25
1.06
Henan Jianye xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1.06 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shenzhen Ruby FC come into this having played 7 games, going 4W 2D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (1W 4D 2L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Henan Jianye, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shenzhen Ruby FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shenzhen Ruby FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shenzhen Ruby FC are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.14 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Early Season
Henan Jianye
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 games (2.00 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 1W 4D 2L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home or Henan Jianye away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shenzhen Ruby FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Shenzhen Ruby FC's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
2
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye?
From 5 meetings on record, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2023, when Henan Jianye 3-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shenzhen Ruby FC at 67%, Henan Jianye at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Shenzhen Ruby FC) and 33% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Shenzhen Ruby FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 33%; Shenzhen Ruby FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Henan Jianye in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shenzhen Ruby FC home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shenzhen Ruby FC play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's games and 67% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's recent games and 33% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Shenzhen Ruby FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shenzhen Ruby FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tianhe Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Shenzhen Ruby FC and Henan Jianye drew 0-0 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.19 xG and Henan Jianye 1.06 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Henan Jianye landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.14 against Henan Jianye attack 0.79 / defence 1.25, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shenzhen Ruby FC 35% | Draw 37% | Henan Jianye 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shenzhen Ruby FC 71%, Henan Jianye 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Shenzhen Ruby FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.