SHANGHAI SIPG 3-2 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye meet at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena in Super League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 24 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
SHANGHAI SIPG at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena than their overall form suggests.
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Henan Jianye away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for SHANGHAI SIPG against 1.60 for Henan Jianye. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SHANGHAI SIPG lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2022, ended 1–3 with Henan Jianye winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SHANGHAI SIPG — key trading statistics (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 38% versus Henan Jianye 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 46% | Henan Jianye 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.49 xG and Henan Jianye 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.219 / defence 0.956 | Henan Jianye attack 0.771 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.314. Data: 42 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 41 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 46% | Draw 32% | Henan Jianye 22%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Henan Jianye 4.55. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SHANGHAI SIPG 20% | Henan Jianye 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: SAIC Motor Pudong Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 46% | Draw 32% | Henan Jianye 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.49 / Henan Jianye 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.219 / def 0.956 | Henan Jianye attack 0.771 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Henan Jianye xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 24 May 2023 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye?
SHANGHAI SIPG 3 - 2 Henan Jianye.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 46% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye?
Record (2 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 1W | Draws 0 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SHANGHAI SIPG's attack rating (1.22) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.77x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
46%
2.16
32%
3.11
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.45
0.97
Henan Jianye xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
5%
20.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.97 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SHANGHAI SIPG come into this having played 55 games, going 32W 11D 12L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.56 PPG from 55 outings (23W 17D 15L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.95 PPG for SHANGHAI SIPG against 1.56 for Henan Jianye. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SHANGHAI SIPG's home form reads 20W 3D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 1.25 points per game from 28 outings (8W 11D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.38 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games; Henan Jianye in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 32W 11D 12L in their last 55 games (1.95 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 23W 17D 15L in their last 55 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Henan Jianye away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.25 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.25 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-1 on 15 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
SHANGHAI SIPG
0
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye?
From 10 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 7, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 39% (Henan Jianye) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 32% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 39%; Henan Jianye in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 39% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 32% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Henan Jianye 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Henan Jianye 3-2 at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.49 xG and Henan Jianye 0.97 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Henan Jianye outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.22 / defence 0.96 against Henan Jianye attack 0.77 / defence 0.92, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 46% | Draw 32% | Henan Jianye 22%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 46%, Henan Jianye 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SHANGHAI SIPG 1.95 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SHANGHAI SIPG win broke the near-deadlock. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.