SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Dalian Sports Center to face SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 August 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Dalian Sports Center this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 3W 2D 2L from 7 away outings — 1.57 PPG. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (SHANGHAI SIPG 38% | Hangzhou Greentown 31%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (SHANGHAI SIPG 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 15%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.20 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.882 / defence 0.746 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.996 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.313. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating of 0.746 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 26 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 11 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 41% | Draw 29% | Hangzhou Greentown 30%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 30% | Hangzhou Greentown 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Dalian Sports Center • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 41% | Draw 29% | Hangzhou Greentown 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.20 / Hangzhou Greentown 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.882 / def 0.746 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.996 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Hangzhou Greentown xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Dalian Sports Center.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown?
SHANGHAI SIPG 1 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Sports Center.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 41% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SHANGHAI SIPG's attack rating (0.88) and Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.00x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 26/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
41%
2.44
29%
3.44
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.17
0.97
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
9%
11.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.97 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 7W 2D 4L from 13 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 3L across 13 games — 1.69 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for SHANGHAI SIPG against 1.69 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 3W 2D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.23 scored and 0.69 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Hangzhou Greentown in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 7W 2D 4L in their last 13 games (1.77 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 6W 4D 3L in their last 13 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 1.86 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.57 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 3-0 on 31 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
4
Draws
2
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 9 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 29%, Hangzhou Greentown 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 29% for Hangzhou Greentown.
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; SHANGHAI SIPG have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Hangzhou Greentown?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 57% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 29% of Hangzhou Greentown's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG and Hangzhou Greentown finished level at 1-1 at Dalian Sports Center, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.20 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 0.97 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.88 / defence 0.75 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 26/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 41% | Draw 29% | Hangzhou Greentown 30%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 19% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 23%, Hangzhou Greentown 15%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SHANGHAI SIPG 1.77 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.