Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Shanghai Shenhua take on Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda meet at Shanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 July 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Current Form
Shanghai Shenhua's overall Super League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 5W 3D 2L at Shanghai Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Shanghai Stadium.
Tianjin Teda (all games): 3W 7D 0L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Shanghai Shenhua 0W, Tianjin Teda 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 52% versus Tianjin Teda 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shanghai Shenhua 30% | Tianjin Teda 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 0.78 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.839 / defence 0.674 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.851 / defence 0.679. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.282. Tianjin Teda's defence strength of 0.679 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating of 0.674 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Shanghai Shenhua games / 46 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 32% | Draw 39% | Tianjin Teda 29%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 3.12 | Draw 2.56 | Tianjin Teda 3.45. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.52. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.52 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Tianjin Teda's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 20% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 40% | Tianjin Teda 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jul 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 32% | Draw 39% | Tianjin Teda 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 30% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 0.78 / Tianjin Teda 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.839 / def 0.674 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.851 / def 0.679 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Tianjin Teda xG
30%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 2 July 2023 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 2 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 32% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 29% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda?
Record (2 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 0W | Draws 1 | Tianjin Teda 1W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shanghai Shenhua's attack rating (0.84) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (0.68), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (0.85x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 23.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.16
39%
2.54
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
1.52
0.73
Tianjin Teda xG
3.16
32%
Home win
2.54
39%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.37
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.9 | 16.1 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.6 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.6%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.73 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 1.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shanghai Shenhua's recent record stands at 21W 15D 10L from 46 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 12L across 46 games — 1.57 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Shanghai Shenhua against 1.57 for Tianjin Teda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shanghai Shenhua have managed 11W 6D 5L from 22 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 9W 7D 6L across 22 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.35 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 21W 15D 10L in their last 46 games (1.70 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 19W 15D 12L in their last 46 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 1.77 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 3-0 on 25 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shanghai Shenhua
3
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 0-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 46%, Tianjin Teda 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Shanghai Shenhua and 32% for Tianjin Teda.
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 36%; Tianjin Teda in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 46% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 32% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tianjin Teda defy the odds to beat Shanghai Shenhua 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 0.78 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.73 xG, a combined 1.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Tianjin Teda outscored their 0.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.84 / defence 0.67 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.85 / defence 0.68, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 32% | Draw 39% | Tianjin Teda 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 30%, Tianjin Teda 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shanghai Shenhua 1.70 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.