Shanghai Shenhua 2-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua host Beijing Guoan at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 23 April 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 0.80 xG and Beijing Guoan 2.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.817 / away 2.283. Data: 0 Shanghai Shenhua games / 0 Beijing Guoan games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 9% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 67%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 11.11 | Draw 4.35 | Beijing Guoan 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Beijing Guoan (67%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beijing Guoan are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 23 Apr 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 9% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 52% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 0.80 / Beijing Guoan 2.23 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.817 / away 2.283 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
2.23
Beijing Guoan xG
52%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 23 April 2021 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan?
Shanghai Shenhua 2 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 9% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 67% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shanghai Shenhua's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 2.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
9%
10.71
23%
4.30
67%
1.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
3.03
2.23
Beijing Guoan xG
10.71
9%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
1.48
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
11%
9.32
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
1%
99.77
30%
3.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 2.23 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Pre-Season
Beijing Guoan
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Shanghai Shenhua
4
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 2, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Beijing Guoan 1-1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Shanghai Shenhua defy the odds to beat Beijing Guoan 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Beijing Guoan 2-1 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 0.80 xG and Beijing Guoan 2.23 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beijing Guoan landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 9% | Draw 23% | Beijing Guoan 67%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Shanghai Shenhua win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.