Shandong Luneng 2-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shandong Luneng host Shijiazhuang Y. J. at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 11 August 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shandong Luneng — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Shandong Luneng have gone 5W 1D 0L this season (6 games, 2.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 0W 2D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Shandong Luneng have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shandong Luneng, 0 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2021, ended 2–0 with Shandong Luneng winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Shandong Luneng in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 46% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 46% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.21 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.284 / defence 0.898 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.847 / defence 1.574. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.311. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.574 — this is suppressing Shandong Luneng's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Shandong Luneng games / 13 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 63% | Draw 23% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 14%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 33% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 Aug 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 63% | Draw 23% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 58% | xG Shandong Luneng 2.21 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.284 / def 0.898 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.847 / def 1.574 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 13:00 on Wednesday 11 August 2021 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shandong Luneng 2 - 1 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 63% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (1 meetings): Shandong Luneng 1W | Draws 0 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shandong Luneng's attack rating (1.28) and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence rating (1.57), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
63%
1.59
23%
4.29
14%
7.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.20
1.00
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
7.20
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
11%
9.07
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
2%
65.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.00 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Shandong Luneng have picked up 2.31 PPG on a 9W 3D 1L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form line: 2W 4D 7L from 13 games, 0.77 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shandong Luneng are the form team by 1.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shandong Luneng have posted 2.67 PPG from 6 outings (5W 1D 0L).
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 0W 2D 4L from 6 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 0.92 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 9W 3D 1L in their last 13 games (2.31 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 4D 7L in their last 13 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.67 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J. runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2023, when Shandong Luneng won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Shandong Luneng
1
Draws
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 8 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 5, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 33%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Shandong Luneng) and 83% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Shandong Luneng's games and 83% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 83% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shandong Luneng edge out Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.21 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.00 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.28 / defence 0.90 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.85 / defence 1.57, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 63% | Draw 23% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 14%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 46%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.