Shandong Luneng 4-1 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shandong Luneng (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shandong Luneng face Shijiazhuang Y. J..
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shandong Luneng host Shijiazhuang Y. J. at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Shandong Luneng — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Shandong Luneng have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Shandong Luneng have the edge — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Shandong Luneng have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 4–0 with Shandong Luneng winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shandong Luneng and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Shandong Luneng in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 50% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 61% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.10 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.162 / defence 1.110 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.128 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.366. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing Shandong Luneng's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Shandong Luneng games / 36 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 47% | Draw 21% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 32%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.13 | Draw 4.76 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3.12. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.81 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shandong Luneng 50% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 47% | Draw 21% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Shandong Luneng 2.10 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.162 / def 1.110 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.128 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shandong Luneng 4 - 1 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 47% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 32% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (6 meetings): Shandong Luneng 4W | Draws 1 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shandong Luneng's attack rating (1.16) and Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
47%
2.13
21%
4.70
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.81
1.71
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.58
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
12%
8.17
Win to Nil
9%
11.76
4%
25.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.71 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 3.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Shandong Luneng have picked up 2.12 PPG on a 41W 13D 10L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form line: 19W 18D 27L from 64 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Shandong Luneng are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shandong Luneng have posted 2.62 PPG from 32 outings (27W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 2.12 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 11W 6D 15L from 32 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.28 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.19 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 41W 13D 10L in their last 64 games (2.12 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 19W 18D 27L in their last 64 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.62 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J. runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2023, when Shandong Luneng won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Shandong Luneng
1
Draws
2
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 8 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 5, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 41%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Shandong Luneng and 66% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 59% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 66% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Shandong Luneng and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 4-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.10 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.71 xG, a combined 3.81. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.16 / defence 1.11 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.13 / defence 1.34, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 47% | Draw 21% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 32%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 61%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.91 average — above their attacking norm. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.