Shandong Luneng 4-2 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shandong Luneng vs Shenzhen Ruby FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Shenzhen Ruby FC travel to Yuexiushan Stadium to take on Shandong Luneng. The game is scheduled for Thursday 5 August 2021, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shandong Luneng stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yuexiushan Stadium, Shandong Luneng have gone 4W 1D 0L this season (5 games, 2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yuexiushan Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Yuexiushan Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shenzhen Ruby FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC away from home this season: 4W 0D 1L from 5 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shandong Luneng at 2.10 PPG versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Shandong Luneng, 0 for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Shandong Luneng in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 36% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 36% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.16 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.093 / defence 0.832 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.259 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.020 / away 1.224. Shenzhen Ruby FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — the away xG of 1.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Shandong Luneng games / 11 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 30% | Draw 35% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 3.33 | Draw 2.86 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shenzhen Ruby FC as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shenzhen Ruby FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Shandong Luneng 20% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Yuexiushan Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Aug 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 30% | Draw 35% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.16 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.093 / def 0.832 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.259 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.020 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Shenzhen Ruby FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 11:00 on Thursday 5 August 2021 at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Shandong Luneng 4 - 2 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 30% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Shenzhen Ruby FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (1 meetings): Shandong Luneng 0W | Draws 1 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shandong Luneng's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus Shandong Luneng's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenzhen Ruby FC Win
30%
3.35
35%
2.89
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.44
1.28
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
3.35
30%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
8%
12.04
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.28 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 11 games, going 7W 3D 1L for 2.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shenzhen Ruby FC sit at 1.91 PPG from 11 outings (6W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shandong Luneng on 2.18 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 4W 1D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.18 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Shenzhen Ruby FC have taken 2.40 points per game from 5 outings (4W 0D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.91 PPG overall record — Shenzhen Ruby FC travel well.
The Goals Picture
Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.55 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 1.73 scored and 1.00 conceded. Shandong Luneng's scoring rate against Shenzhen Ruby FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 7W 3D 1L in their last 11 games (2.18 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 6W 3D 2L in their last 11 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.60 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Shenzhen Ruby FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their recent games, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shandong Luneng and Shenzhen Ruby FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shandong Luneng have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2022, when Shandong Luneng won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shandong Luneng's record when hosting Shenzhen Ruby FC specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Shandong Luneng
1
Draws
0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 5, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 1-2 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 20%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Shandong Luneng) and 80% (Shenzhen Ruby FC).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 60% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Shandong Luneng's recent games and 80% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shandong Luneng and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 4-2 at Yuexiushan Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.16 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.28 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.09 / defence 0.83 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.26 / defence 1.04, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 30% | Draw 35% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 36%, with Shenzhen Ruby FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Shandong Luneng win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 36%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shandong Luneng 2.18 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.