Shandong Luneng 1-2 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Henan Jianye make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shandong Luneng have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's home record at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Henan Jianye (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Shandong Luneng against 1.60 for Henan Jianye. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Shandong Luneng register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Henan Jianye in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shandong Luneng lead 4W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Shandong Luneng winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shandong Luneng 75% and Henan Jianye 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shandong Luneng 77% | Henan Jianye 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.02 xG and Henan Jianye 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.308 / defence 1.137 | Henan Jianye attack 0.911 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.314. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.308 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Shandong Luneng games / 48 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 53% | Draw 22% | Henan Jianye 26%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Henan Jianye 3.85. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 90% | Henan Jianye 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2026, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 53% | Draw 22% | Henan Jianye 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Shandong Luneng 2.02 / Henan Jianye 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.308 / def 1.137 | Henan Jianye attack 0.911 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (53%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Henan Jianye xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 26 July 2026 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Shandong Luneng 1 - 2 Henan Jianye.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 53% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye?
Record (9 meetings): Shandong Luneng 4W | Draws 3 | Henan Jianye 2W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shandong Luneng's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.91x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
53%
1.89
22%
4.65
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
1 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.38
1.36
Henan Jianye xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
13%
7.56
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
3%
29.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.36 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 48 games, going 24W 10D 14L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.27 PPG from 48 outings (17W 10D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 15W 5D 3L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 1.09 points per game from 23 outings (7W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.56 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shandong Luneng have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Henan Jianye in 67%.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 24W 10D 14L in their last 48 games (1.71 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 17W 10D 21L in their last 48 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Henan Jianye away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.17 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 5-1 on 4 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Shandong Luneng
3
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye?
From 10 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 4, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Shandong Luneng 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 74% for Shandong Luneng, 70% for Henan Jianye — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Shandong Luneng and 65% for Henan Jianye. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Shandong Luneng's games and 70% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 65% of Henan Jianye's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Henan Jianye defy the odds to beat Shandong Luneng 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Shandong Luneng 1-2 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.02 xG and Henan Jianye 1.36 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shandong Luneng fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.31 / defence 1.14 against Henan Jianye attack 0.91 / defence 0.90, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 53% | Draw 22% | Henan Jianye 26%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual Henan Jianye win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 77%, Henan Jianye 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Henan Jianye winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.52 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.