Qingdao Jonoon 0-3 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns meet at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 April 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Wuhan Three Towns have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Wuhan Three Towns's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.29 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.115 / defence 1.087 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.237 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.214. Wuhan Three Towns have an above-average attack strength of 1.237 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 3 Qingdao Jonoon games / 37 Wuhan Three Towns games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 29% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Three Towns 44%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Wuhan Three Towns 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 29% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Three Towns 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.29 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.115 / def 1.087 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.237 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Wuhan Three Towns xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Qingdao Jonoon 0 - 3 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 29% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Wuhan Three Towns away split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 1.11x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wuhan Three Towns's attack (1.24x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
The sample (3/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
29%
3.48
27%
3.66
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.92
1.63
Wuhan Three Towns xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
6%
17.78
12%
8.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.63 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Pre-Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 6 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Qingdao Jonoon have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wuhan Three Towns won 0-3 on 29 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Wuhan Three Towns — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
1
Draws
4
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 7 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Wuhan Three Towns have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 1-3 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Wuhan Three Towns run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-3 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.29 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.63 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Wuhan Three Towns outscored their 1.63 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.11 / defence 1.09 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.24 / defence 0.86, drawn from 3/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 29% | Draw 27% | Wuhan Three Towns 44%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.