Qingdao Jonoon 0-2 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tianjin Teda make the trip to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to face Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 July 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Qingdao Jonoon lead 2W to 4W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Qingdao Jonoon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 58% versus Tianjin Teda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 50% | Tianjin Teda 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.39 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.080 / defence 0.941 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.967 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.347. Tianjin Teda's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Qingdao Jonoon games / 48 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 40% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 32%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Tianjin Teda 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Jonoon as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Tianjin Teda 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jul 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 40% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.39 / Tianjin Teda 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.080 / def 0.941 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.967 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.747 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Tianjin Teda xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 25 July 2026 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda?
Qingdao Jonoon 0 - 2 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 40% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda?
Record (7 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 2W | Draws 1 | Tianjin Teda 4W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Qingdao Jonoon's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Tianjin Teda's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (0.97x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
40%
2.50
27%
3.64
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.61
1.23
Tianjin Teda xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.23 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Qingdao Jonoon have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 11W 12D 25L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 17W 14D 17L from 48 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Tianjin Teda are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Qingdao Jonoon.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1.48 PPG from 23 outings (9W 7D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 6W 7D 10L from 23 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.33 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 11W 12D 25L in their last 48 games (0.94 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 17W 14D 17L in their last 48 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.48 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 1-4 on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
1
Draws
5
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda?
From 8 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Tianjin Teda have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 0-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 56%, Tianjin Teda 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 48% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 26% of games; Tianjin Teda in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Qingdao Jonoon's games and 56% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 48% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-2 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.39 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.23 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.97 / defence 0.73, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 40% | Draw 27% | Tianjin Teda 32%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 50%, Tianjin Teda 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.