Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon and Shanghai Shenhua meet at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 8 June 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shanghai Shenhua away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 0.96 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.914 / defence 1.044 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.019 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.274. Shanghai Shenhua's defence strength of 0.772 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 11 Qingdao Jonoon games / 45 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 25% | Draw 31% | Shanghai Shenhua 44%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Jun 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 25% | Draw 31% | Shanghai Shenhua 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 0.96 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.914 / def 1.044 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.019 / def 0.772 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Shanghai Shenhua xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:35 on Thursday 8 June 2023 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Qingdao Jonoon 0 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 25% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Shanghai Shenhua?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Shanghai Shenhua away split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 0.91x the league average against Shanghai Shenhua's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (1.02x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
25%
4.00
31%
3.28
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.31
1.36
Shanghai Shenhua xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
6%
15.52
17%
5.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.4 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.36 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Pre-Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Qingdao Jonoon
0
Draws
8
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 8 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 0, Shanghai Shenhua have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Qingdao Jonoon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 0.96 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.36 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Jonoon fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.91 / defence 1.04 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.02 / defence 0.77, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 25% | Draw 31% | Shanghai Shenhua 44%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.