Qingdao Jonoon 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon host Hangzhou Greentown at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.24 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.044 / defence 1.058 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.037 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.233. Data: 7 Qingdao Jonoon games / 40 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 30% | Draw 34% | Hangzhou Greentown 36%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 30% | Draw 34% | Hangzhou Greentown 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.24 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.044 / def 1.058 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.037 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Hangzhou Greentown xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Qingdao Jonoon 2 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 30% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Hangzhou Greentown away split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Qingdao Jonoon's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
30%
3.30
34%
2.95
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.59
1.35
Hangzhou Greentown xG
3.30
30%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
8%
12.76
10%
9.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.35 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Pre-Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 14 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hangzhou Greentown go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jun 2025, when Hangzhou Greentown won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Hangzhou Greentown specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
3
Draws
4
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 8 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 14 July 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 3-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 8, as Qingdao Jonoon and Hangzhou Greentown drew 2-2 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.24 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.35 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 7/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 30% | Draw 34% | Hangzhou Greentown 36%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.