Nantong Zhiyun 1-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nantong Zhiyun and Henan Jianye meet at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Henan Jianye have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Henan Jianye's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 1.10 xG and Henan Jianye 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.858 / defence 1.150 | Henan Jianye attack 1.089 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.293. Data: 2 Nantong Zhiyun games / 35 Henan Jianye games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 24% | Draw 29% | Henan Jianye 47%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Henan Jianye 2.13. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Apr 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 24% | Draw 29% | Henan Jianye 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 1.10 / Henan Jianye 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.858 / def 1.150 | Henan Jianye attack 1.089 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Henan Jianye xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye?
Nantong Zhiyun 1 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 24% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Henan Jianye?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Henan Jianye in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Henan Jianye away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nantong Zhiyun's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (1.09x) against Nantong Zhiyun's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
The sample (2/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
24%
4.25
29%
3.40
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.72
1.62
Henan Jianye xG
4.25
24%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
20%
5.05
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
5%
21.44
16%
6.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.62 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Pre-Season
Henan Jianye
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nantong Zhiyun
3
Draws
0
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Henan Jianye?
From 4 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 1, Henan Jianye have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 4 August 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 1-1 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Henan Jianye?
Nantong Zhiyun have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Nantong Zhiyun defy the odds to beat Henan Jianye 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantong Zhiyun beat Henan Jianye 1-0 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 1.10 xG and Henan Jianye 1.62 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Henan Jianye landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Henan Jianye attack 1.09 / defence 0.91, drawn from 2/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 24% | Draw 29% | Henan Jianye 47%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Nantong Zhiyun win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.