Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 32 as Henan Jianye welcome Shenzhen Ruby FC to Mission Hills Football Base Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 23 December 2022 at 07:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Henan Jianye have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Shenzhen Ruby FC — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
Henan Jianye carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Henan Jianye have won 1, Shenzhen Ruby FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Henan Jianye winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 45% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 40% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.39 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.069 / defence 0.811 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.707 / defence 1.575. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.385. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.575 — this is suppressing Henan Jianye's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Henan Jianye games / 45 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 72% | Draw 19% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 10%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.39 | Draw 5.26 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Henan Jianye 20% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 23 Dec 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 72% | Draw 19% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 51% | xG Henan Jianye 2.39 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.069 / def 0.811 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.707 / def 1.575 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
51%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 07:00 on Friday 23 December 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 72% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 10% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (3 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 1 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 1.07x the league average against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence at 1.57x — combine the two and it projects 2.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
72%
1.39
19%
5.33
10%
10.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.18
0.80
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.33
19%
Draw
10.49
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
9%
10.90
Win to Nil
32%
3.09
1%
114.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.80 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Henan Jianye's recent record stands at 22W 16D 15L from 53 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Shenzhen Ruby FC, meanwhile, have gone 18W 8D 27L across 53 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.55 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Henan Jianye have managed 15W 5D 6L from 26 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record stands at 9W 4D 13L across 26 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 1.17 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 22W 16D 15L in their last 53 games (1.55 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 18W 8D 27L in their last 53 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.92 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Shenzhen Ruby FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Shenzhen Ruby FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 2, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2023, when Henan Jianye 3-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 50%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Henan Jianye) and 65% (Shenzhen Ruby FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Henan Jianye's games and 62% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Henan Jianye's matches and 65% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Henan Jianye's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC finished level at 0-0 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.39 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 0.80 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Henan Jianye fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.07 / defence 0.81 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.57, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 72% | Draw 19% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 10%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 40%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.55 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.