Henan Jianye 1-2 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Henan Jianye welcome Shenzhen Ruby FC to Huadu Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 21 April 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 0.92 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.942 / away 1.698. Data: 0 Henan Jianye games / 0 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 17% | Draw 31% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 51%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 5.88 | Draw 3.23 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.96. Shenzhen Ruby FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shenzhen Ruby FC as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shenzhen Ruby FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Huadu Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Apr 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 17% | Draw 31% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Henan Jianye 0.92 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.942 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Shenzhen Ruby FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 13:00 on Wednesday 21 April 2021 at Huadu Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Henan Jianye 1 - 2 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Huadu Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 17% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 51% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shenzhen Ruby FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 0.85x the league average against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenzhen Ruby FC Win
17%
5.76
31%
3.19
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.58
1.66
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
5.76
17%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
3%
30.30
20%
4.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 12.6 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.66 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Pre-Season
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Shenzhen Ruby FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 2, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2023, when Henan Jianye 3-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Shenzhen Ruby FC edge out Henan Jianye 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Henan Jianye 1-2 at Huadu Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 0.92 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.66 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 17% | Draw 31% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 51%, with Shenzhen Ruby FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.