Henan Jianye 1-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yuexiushan Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 2 May 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 0.82 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.986 / defence 1.221 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.921 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 0.808 / away 1.424. Data: 2 Henan Jianye games / 2 Shandong Luneng games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 16% | Draw 32% | Shandong Luneng 52%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 6.25 | Draw 3.12 | Shandong Luneng 1.92. Shandong Luneng hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Yuexiushan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 May 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 16% | Draw 32% | Shandong Luneng 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Henan Jianye 0.82 / Shandong Luneng 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.986 / def 1.221 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.921 / def 1.027 | league avg home 0.808 / away 1.424 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Shandong Luneng xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 2 May 2021 at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Henan Jianye 1 - 1 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 16% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 52% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Shandong Luneng's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (0.92x) against Henan Jianye's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
16%
6.41
32%
3.13
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.42
1.60
Shandong Luneng xG
6.41
16%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
3%
31.83
23%
4.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 14.2 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.60 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Pre-Season
Shandong Luneng
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 5-1 on 4 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
3
Draws
4
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng?
From 10 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, Shandong Luneng have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Shandong Luneng 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Yuexiushan Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 0.82 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.60 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.99 / defence 1.22 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.92 / defence 1.03, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 16% | Draw 32% | Shandong Luneng 52%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.