Henan Jianye 1-1 Guangzhou R&F – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Henan Jianye take on Guangzhou R&F.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F meet at Huadu Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 11 August 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Henan Jianye (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 1L across 6 games at Huadu Stadium this term (1.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Guangzhou R&F have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou R&F's away record: 3W 2D 1L from 6 road trips in Super League this season (1.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 6 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.83 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Henan Jianye 0W, Guangzhou R&F 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Guangzhou R&F — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 46% versus Guangzhou R&F 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Henan Jianye 23% | Guangzhou R&F 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.02 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.910 / defence 0.858 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.713 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.311. Data: 13 Henan Jianye games / 13 Guangzhou R&F games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 37% | Draw 38% | Guangzhou R&F 25%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.70 | Draw 2.63 | Guangzhou R&F 4.00. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.83 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 67% | Guangzhou R&F 17% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Huadu Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 Aug 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 37% | Draw 38% | Guangzhou R&F 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Henan Jianye 1.02 / Guangzhou R&F 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.910 / def 0.858 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.713 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Guangzhou R&F xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F kicked off at 13:00 on Wednesday 11 August 2021 at Huadu Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F?
Henan Jianye 1 - 1 Guangzhou R&F.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F being played?
The match is being played at Huadu Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F part of?
Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 37% chance of winning, Guangzhou R&F a 25% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F?
Record (1 meetings): Henan Jianye 0W | Draws 1 | Guangzhou R&F 0W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (0.91) and Guangzhou R&F's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guangzhou R&F's attack (0.71x) against Henan Jianye's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.72
38%
2.61
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
1.83
0.80
Guangzhou R&F xG
2.72
37%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
9%
11.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.80 for Guangzhou R&F, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 4W 5D 4L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou R&F's form line: 5W 5D 3L from 13 games, 1.54 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Henan Jianye against 1.54 for Guangzhou R&F. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Guangzhou R&F have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Henan Jianye are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou R&F are on 1.54 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Guangzhou R&F in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 games (1.31 PPG), while Guangzhou R&F have gone 5W 5D 3L in their last 13 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Guangzhou R&F away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.83 PPG; Guangzhou R&F away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Guangzhou R&F been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Guangzhou R&F in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Henan Jianye have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 0-3 on 15 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guangzhou R&F — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
0
Guangzhou R&F
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F?
From 4 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 2, Guangzhou R&F have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F last play each other?
They last met on 7 July 2022, when Henan Jianye 2-1 Guangzhou R&F.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Guangzhou R&F see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 67%, Guangzhou R&F 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Henan Jianye and 33% for Guangzhou R&F.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Guangzhou R&F in 67%; Guangzhou R&F in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Guangzhou R&F away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Guangzhou R&F?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 17% of Guangzhou R&F's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Guangzhou R&F usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 33% of Guangzhou R&F's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Guangzhou R&F in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye and Guangzhou R&F finished level at 1-1 at Huadu Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.02 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.80 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.91 / defence 0.86 against Guangzhou R&F attack 0.71 / defence 1.03, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 37% | Draw 38% | Guangzhou R&F 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 23%, Guangzhou R&F 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.31 PPG, Guangzhou R&F 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.