Hebei Zhongji 0-5 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Championship Round - 1 as Hebei Zhongji welcome Shandong Luneng to Tianhe Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 December 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hebei Zhongji — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hebei Zhongji's home record at Tianhe Stadium: 4W 3D 0L from 7 Super League appearances (2.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.14 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Hebei Zhongji are significantly better at Tianhe Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Shandong Luneng have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shandong Luneng's away record: 4W 2D 1L from 7 road trips in Super League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.29 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shandong Luneng — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Hebei Zhongji in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Shandong Luneng in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 43% versus Shandong Luneng 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hebei Zhongji 29% | Shandong Luneng 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 1.10 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.908 / defence 0.970 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.078 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Hebei Zhongji games / 14 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 28% | Draw 32% | Shandong Luneng 40%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Shandong Luneng 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shandong Luneng are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Hebei Zhongji 57% | Shandong Luneng 57% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Tianhe Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 13 Dec 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 28% | Draw 32% | Shandong Luneng 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Hebei Zhongji 1.10 / Shandong Luneng 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.908 / def 0.970 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.078 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Shandong Luneng xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:00 on Monday 13 December 2021 at Tianhe Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng?
Hebei Zhongji 0 - 5 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Tianhe Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 28% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Shandong Luneng?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Shandong Luneng in?
Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hebei Zhongji's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Shandong Luneng's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Hebei Zhongji's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
28%
3.53
32%
3.16
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
2.45
1.34
Shandong Luneng xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
7%
13.55
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 1.34 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hebei Zhongji's recent record stands at 6W 5D 3L from 14 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 10W 3D 1L across 14 games — 2.36 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hebei Zhongji heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hebei Zhongji have managed 4W 3D 0L from 7 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Hebei Zhongji are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 4W 2D 1L across 7 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.14 scored and 0.71 conceded. Shandong Luneng's attacking output running into Hebei Zhongji's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Hebei Zhongji have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Shandong Luneng in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 6W 5D 3L in their last 14 games (1.64 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 10W 3D 1L in their last 14 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Hebei Zhongji's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 2.14 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Hebei Zhongji or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hebei Zhongji have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hebei Zhongji and Shandong Luneng runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shandong Luneng have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2022, when Shandong Luneng won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hebei Zhongji's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Hebei Zhongji
0
Draws
4
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Shandong Luneng?
From 4 meetings on record, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2022, when Shandong Luneng 4-0 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Hebei Zhongji and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hebei Zhongji 57%, Shandong Luneng 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Hebei Zhongji) and 57% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Shandong Luneng in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hebei Zhongji play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Hebei Zhongji's games and 57% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hebei Zhongji vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Hebei Zhongji's recent games and 57% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hebei Zhongji and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Hebei Zhongji have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shandong Luneng run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Hebei Zhongji.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Hebei Zhongji 0-5 at Tianhe Stadium, Championship Round - 1, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 1.10 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.34 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Hebei Zhongji fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Shandong Luneng outscored their 1.34 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.08 / defence 1.04, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 28% | Draw 32% | Shandong Luneng 40%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 29%, Shandong Luneng 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.64. Form held, and they took the win. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.