Hebei Zhongji 1-1 Guangzhou R&F – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hebei Zhongji at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hebei Zhongji host Guangzhou R&F at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium in Super League, Championship Round - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 22 December 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hebei Zhongji stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hebei Zhongji have posted 4W 3D 1L at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium — 1.88 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.88 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Hebei Zhongji are significantly better at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Guangzhou R&F have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Guangzhou R&F have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hebei Zhongji at 1.30 PPG versus Guangzhou R&F's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Hebei Zhongji trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Guangzhou R&F trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 41% versus Guangzhou R&F 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hebei Zhongji 35% | Guangzhou R&F 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 1.15 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.913 / defence 0.982 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.788 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Hebei Zhongji games / 14 Guangzhou R&F games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 37% | Draw 34% | Guangzhou R&F 29%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Guangzhou R&F 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hebei Zhongji are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hebei Zhongji offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hebei Zhongji 50% | Guangzhou R&F 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Dec 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 37% | Draw 34% | Guangzhou R&F 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Hebei Zhongji 1.15 / Guangzhou R&F 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.913 / def 0.982 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.788 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Hebei Zhongji (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Guangzhou R&F xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F kicked off at 10:00 on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F?
Hebei Zhongji 1 - 1 Guangzhou R&F.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F being played?
The match is being played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 37% chance of winning, Guangzhou R&F a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Hebei Zhongji the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou R&F will score (BTTS).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou R&F?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou R&F in?
Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hebei Zhongji's attack rating (0.91) and Guangzhou R&F's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou R&F's attack versus Hebei Zhongji's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hebei Zhongji Win
37%
2.72
34%
2.92
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
2.14
0.99
Guangzhou R&F xG
2.72
37%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
9%
10.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou R&F expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 0.99 for Guangzhou R&F, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Hebei Zhongji have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 6W 6D 5L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou R&F's form line: 6W 6D 5L from 17 games, 1.41 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hebei Zhongji on 1.41 PPG, Guangzhou R&F on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hebei Zhongji have posted 1.88 PPG from 8 outings (4W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Hebei Zhongji are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Guangzhou R&F have gone 3W 3D 2L from 8 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou R&F are on 1.53 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Hebei Zhongji have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Guangzhou R&F in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou R&F in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 6W 6D 5L in their last 17 games (1.41 PPG), while Guangzhou R&F have gone 6W 6D 5L in their last 17 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or Guangzhou R&F away?
Hebei Zhongji's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 1.88 PPG; Guangzhou R&F away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Hebei Zhongji or Guangzhou R&F been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hebei Zhongji have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Guangzhou R&F in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Guangzhou R&F go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2022, when Guangzhou R&F won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hebei Zhongji's record when hosting Guangzhou R&F specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Hebei Zhongji
1
Draws
3
Guangzhou R&F
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou R&F?
From 4 meetings on record, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, Guangzhou R&F have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou R&F last play each other?
They last met on 23 December 2022, when Guangzhou R&F 4-1 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou R&F?
Guangzhou R&F have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Guangzhou R&F see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hebei Zhongji 50%, Guangzhou R&F 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Hebei Zhongji and 25% for Guangzhou R&F.
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Guangzhou R&F in 50%; Guangzhou R&F in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Guangzhou R&F away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hebei Zhongji play Guangzhou R&F?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 25% of Guangzhou R&F's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hebei Zhongji vs Guangzhou R&F usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Hebei Zhongji's recent games and 25% of Guangzhou R&F's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou R&F tend to score early?
Hebei Zhongji have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Guangzhou R&F in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou R&F share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Championship Round - 4, as Hebei Zhongji and Guangzhou R&F drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 1.15 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.99 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Guangzhou R&F attack 0.79 / defence 1.08, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 37% | Draw 34% | Guangzhou R&F 29%, with Hebei Zhongji to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 35%, Guangzhou R&F 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hebei Zhongji 1.41 PPG, Guangzhou R&F 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.