Hebei Zhongji 1-0 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hebei Zhongji at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hebei Zhongji vs Dalian Aerbin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium plays host to Hebei Zhongji versus Dalian Aerbin in Super League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Wednesday 28 July 2021 at 09:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hebei Zhongji have collected 1.57 PPG across 7 Super League outings this season: 3W 2D 2L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hebei Zhongji have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hebei Zhongji have posted 1W 2D 0L at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dalian Aerbin's overall Super League record this term: 1W 1D 5L from 7 games (0.57 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.71 per game is modest, conceding 1.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Dalian Aerbin have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dalian Aerbin's away record: 0W 0D 3L from 3 road trips in Super League this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.57 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Hebei Zhongji's favour (1.57 vs 0.57) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Hebei Zhongji 1W, Dalian Aerbin 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2021, ended 1–0 with Hebei Zhongji winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Hebei Zhongji goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
Dalian Aerbin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 57% versus Dalian Aerbin 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hebei Zhongji 29% | Dalian Aerbin 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 1.62 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 1.051 / defence 1.107 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.831 / defence 1.541. League average goals — home 1.000 / away 1.167. Dalian Aerbin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.541 — this is suppressing Hebei Zhongji's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Hebei Zhongji games / 7 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 47% | Draw 32% | Dalian Aerbin 22%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Dalian Aerbin 4.55. Hebei Zhongji hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hebei Zhongji as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hebei Zhongji if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hebei Zhongji 100% | Dalian Aerbin 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Jul 2021, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 47% | Draw 32% | Dalian Aerbin 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Hebei Zhongji 1.62 / Dalian Aerbin 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 1.051 / def 1.107 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.831 / def 1.541 | league avg home 1.000 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Hebei Zhongji (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Dalian Aerbin xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 09:30 on Wednesday 28 July 2021 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Dalian Aerbin?
Hebei Zhongji 1 - 0 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 47% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hebei Zhongji the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (1 meetings): Hebei Zhongji 1W | Draws 0 | Dalian Aerbin 0W.
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Dalian Aerbin in?
Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.86 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 1W-1D-5L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.71 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hebei Zhongji's attack at 1.05x the league average against Dalian Aerbin's defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dalian Aerbin's attack (0.83x) against Hebei Zhongji's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hebei Zhongji Win
47%
2.15
32%
3.14
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
2.69
1.07
Dalian Aerbin xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
4%
23.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 1.07 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hebei Zhongji come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 2D 2L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dalian Aerbin sit at 0.57 PPG from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hebei Zhongji carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hebei Zhongji's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Aerbin have taken 0.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalian Aerbin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hebei Zhongji come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 0.71 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Early Season
Dalian Aerbin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Hebei Zhongji's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 1.67 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Dalian Aerbin go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dalian Aerbin won 1-4 on 30 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hebei Zhongji have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Hebei Zhongji
0
Draws
2
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Dalian Aerbin?
From 4 meetings on record, Hebei Zhongji have won 2, Dalian Aerbin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2022, when Hebei Zhongji 1-4 Dalian Aerbin.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dalian Aerbin see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Hebei Zhongji, 33% for Dalian Aerbin — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Hebei Zhongji) and 67% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Dalian Aerbin in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hebei Zhongji play Dalian Aerbin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Hebei Zhongji's games and 33% of Dalian Aerbin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hebei Zhongji vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Hebei Zhongji's recent games and 67% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hebei Zhongji and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Hebei Zhongji have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hebei Zhongji edge out Dalian Aerbin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hebei Zhongji beat Dalian Aerbin 1-0 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 1.62 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.07 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dalian Aerbin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 1.05 / defence 1.11 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.83 / defence 1.54, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 47% | Draw 32% | Dalian Aerbin 22%, with Hebei Zhongji to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 29%, Dalian Aerbin 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hebei Zhongji arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.57. That form edge translated into the three points. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.