Guangzhou R&F 3-1 Chongqing Lifan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chongqing Lifan at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guangzhou R&F vs Chongqing Lifan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guangzhou R&F host Chongqing Lifan at Yuexiushan Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 April 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou R&F 0.90 xG and Chongqing Lifan 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou R&F attack 0.981 / defence 1.150 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.794 / away 1.871. Data: 1 Guangzhou R&F games / 1 Chongqing Lifan games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 15% | Draw 29% | Chongqing Lifan 56%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou R&F 6.67 | Draw 3.45 | Chongqing Lifan 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Chongqing Lifan (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chongqing Lifan at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou R&F vs Chongqing Lifan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Yuexiushan Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 26 Apr 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 15% | Draw 29% | Chongqing Lifan 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Guangzhou R&F 0.90 / Chongqing Lifan 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou R&F attack 0.981 / def 1.150 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.794 / away 1.871 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Lifan (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Guangzhou R&F xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Chongqing Lifan xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou R&F vs Chongqing Lifan kick off?
Guangzhou R&F vs Chongqing Lifan kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 26 April 2021 at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou R&F vs Chongqing Lifan?
Guangzhou R&F 3 - 1 Chongqing Lifan.
Where is Guangzhou R&F vs Chongqing Lifan being played?
The match is being played at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou R&F vs Chongqing Lifan part of?
Guangzhou R&F vs Chongqing Lifan is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou R&F vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou R&F a 15% chance of winning, Chongqing Lifan a 56% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Lifan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou R&F vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Guangzhou R&F and Chongqing Lifan will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou R&F vs Chongqing Lifan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Chongqing Lifan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Chongqing Lifan in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guangzhou R&F's attack rating (0.98) and Chongqing Lifan's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chongqing Lifan's attack versus Guangzhou R&F's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chongqing Lifan Win
15%
6.74
29%
3.44
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Guangzhou R&F xG
Total xG
2.73
1.83
Chongqing Lifan xG
6.74
15%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
16%
6.23
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
2%
41.97
23%
4.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou R&F vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Guangzhou R&F and Chongqing Lifan expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Guangzhou R&F and 1.83 for Chongqing Lifan, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou R&F vs Chongqing Lifan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou R&F
Pre-Season
Chongqing Lifan
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 July 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Guangzhou R&F
0
Draws
1
Chongqing Lifan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Chongqing Lifan?
From 2 meetings on record, Guangzhou R&F have won 1, Chongqing Lifan have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou R&F and Chongqing Lifan last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2021, when Chongqing Lifan 4-0 Guangzhou R&F.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou R&F home games / Chongqing Lifan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Guangzhou R&F cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Chongqing Lifan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou R&F beat Chongqing Lifan 3-1 at Yuexiushan Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou R&F 0.90 xG and Chongqing Lifan 1.83 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Guangzhou R&F beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chongqing Lifan landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou R&F attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Chongqing Lifan attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou R&F 15% | Draw 29% | Chongqing Lifan 56%, with Chongqing Lifan to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Guangzhou R&F win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.