Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Changchun Yatai meet at Tianhe Stadium in Super League, Championship Round - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 January 2022 at 07:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tianhe Stadium, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tianhe Stadium.
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.30 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, 0 for Changchun Yatai and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with Guangzhou Evergrande FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Guangzhou Evergrande FC half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Changchun Yatai half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 45% versus Changchun Yatai 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 45% | Changchun Yatai 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.83 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.340 / defence 1.067 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.959 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Guangzhou Evergrande FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 14 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games / 14 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 48% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 26%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Changchun Yatai 3.85. Guangzhou Evergrande FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guangzhou Evergrande FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 50% | Changchun Yatai 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 7 | Venue: Tianhe Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Jan 2022, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 48% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.83 / Changchun Yatai 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.340 / def 1.067 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.959 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou Evergrande FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Changchun Yatai xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 1 January 2022 at Tianhe Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Tianhe Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Changchun Yatai is a Championship Round - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 48% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou Evergrande FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Changchun Yatai?
Record (1 meetings): Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1W | Draws 0 | Changchun Yatai 0W.
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Changchun Yatai in?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (0.96x) against Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou Evergrande FC Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.79
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Total xG
3.15
1.32
Changchun Yatai xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
4%
24.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 1.32 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent record stands at 12W 5D 3L from 20 games, a 2.05 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Changchun Yatai, meanwhile, have gone 11W 5D 4L across 20 games — 1.90 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.05 PPG for Guangzhou Evergrande FC against 1.90 for Changchun Yatai. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have managed 7W 3D 0L from 10 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Changchun Yatai's away record stands at 5W 2D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guangzhou Evergrande FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.50 scored and 0.85 conceded. Guangzhou Evergrande FC's scoring rate against Changchun Yatai's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Changchun Yatai in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 12W 5D 3L in their last 20 games (2.05 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 11W 5D 4L in their last 20 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home: 2.40 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Changchun Yatai won 1-4 on 27 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1
Draws
1
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Changchun Yatai?
From 4 meetings on record, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 2, Changchun Yatai have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 27 December 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-4 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Changchun Yatai?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 50%, Changchun Yatai 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 70% for Changchun Yatai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guangzhou Evergrande FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou Evergrande FC home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou Evergrande FC play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's games and 70% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's matches and 70% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Changchun Yatai 2-0 at Tianhe Stadium, Championship Round - 7, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.83 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.32 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Changchun Yatai landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.34 / defence 1.07 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.96 / defence 1.18, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou Evergrande FC 48% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 26%, with Guangzhou Evergrande FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 45%, Changchun Yatai 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.05 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guangzhou Evergrande FC win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.