Dalian Aerbin 1-1 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Dalian Aerbin take on Wuhan Zall.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Dalian Aerbin welcome Wuhan Zall to Kunshan Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 22 July 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.83 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Dalian Aerbin have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dalian Aerbin's home record at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Super League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Dalian Aerbin are significantly better at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Wuhan Zall — All Games: 0W 3D 3L from 6 Super League fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Wuhan Zall have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wuhan Zall's away record: 0W 2D 1L from 3 road trips in Super League this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Dalian Aerbin) versus 0.50 (Wuhan Zall). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Dalian Aerbin in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Wuhan Zall in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 33% versus Wuhan Zall 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 50% | Wuhan Zall 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 0.90 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.894 / defence 1.146 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.744 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 0.869 / away 1.186. Data: 6 Dalian Aerbin games / 6 Wuhan Zall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 27% | Draw 40% | Wuhan Zall 33%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 3.70 | Draw 2.50 | Wuhan Zall 3.03. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Dalian Aerbin 33% | Wuhan Zall 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Jul 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 27% | Draw 40% | Wuhan Zall 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 42% | xG Dalian Aerbin 0.90 / Wuhan Zall 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.894 / def 1.146 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.744 / def 1.158 | league avg home 0.869 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Wuhan Zall xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 13:30 on Thursday 22 July 2021 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall?
Dalian Aerbin 1 - 1 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 27% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 33% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 1W-0D-5L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.83 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Wuhan Zall (all comps): 0W-3D-3L in 6 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dalian Aerbin's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Zall's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Zall's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.68
40%
2.52
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
1.91
1.01
Wuhan Zall xG
3.68
27%
Home win
2.52
40%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
13%
7.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 15.0 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.01 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 6 outings, Dalian Aerbin have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 5L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wuhan Zall's form line: 0W 3D 3L from 6 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Wuhan Zall, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dalian Aerbin on 0.50 PPG, Wuhan Zall on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dalian Aerbin have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.50 PPG overall — Dalian Aerbin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Wuhan Zall have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 0.50 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Early Season
Wuhan Zall
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 0D 5L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 0W 3D 3L in their last 6 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Dalian Aerbin's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.00 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or Wuhan Zall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Wuhan Zall in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Dec 2022, when Wuhan Zall won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting Wuhan Zall specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dalian Aerbin
1
Draws
2
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, Wuhan Zall have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
They last met on 23 December 2022, when Wuhan Zall 3-0 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall?
Wuhan Zall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dalian Aerbin see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Wuhan Zall see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 33%, Wuhan Zall 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Dalian Aerbin and 33% for Wuhan Zall.
On the defensive side: Dalian Aerbin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Wuhan Zall in 33%; Dalian Aerbin have failed to score in 33% of games; Wuhan Zall in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Wuhan Zall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 67% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Wuhan Zall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 33% of Wuhan Zall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin and Wuhan Zall finished level at 1-1 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 0.90 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.01 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.89 / defence 1.15 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 27% | Draw 40% | Wuhan Zall 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 50%, Wuhan Zall 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Aerbin 0.50 PPG, Wuhan Zall 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.