Dalian Aerbin 1-0 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kunshan Sports Center Stadium plays host to Dalian Aerbin versus Tianjin Teda in Super League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Tuesday 11 May 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 0.74 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.855 / defence 1.213 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.709 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 0.832 / away 1.294. Data: 3 Dalian Aerbin games / 3 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 20% | Draw 39% | Tianjin Teda 40%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 5.00 | Draw 2.56 | Tianjin Teda 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 39% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 39% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 May 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 20% | Draw 39% | Tianjin Teda 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG Dalian Aerbin 0.74 / Tianjin Teda 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.855 / def 1.213 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.709 / def 1.042 | league avg home 0.832 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Tianjin Teda xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 11 May 2021 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda?
Dalian Aerbin 1 - 0 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 20% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 40% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dalian Aerbin's attack at 0.85x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (0.71x) against Dalian Aerbin's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
20%
4.90
39%
2.55
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
1.85
1.11
Tianjin Teda xG
4.90
20%
Home win
2.55
39%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
7%
14.90
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 17.4 | 9.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.11 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Pre-Season
Tianjin Teda
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Tianjin Teda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dalian Aerbin won 0-3 on 27 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Dalian Aerbin
0
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda?
From 6 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 3, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2023, when Tianjin Teda 1-0 Dalian Aerbin.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Dalian Aerbin defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Tianjin Teda 1-0 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 0.74 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.11 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.85 / defence 1.21 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.71 / defence 1.04, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 20% | Draw 39% | Tianjin Teda 40%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Dalian Aerbin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.