Dalian Aerbin 1-2 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua make the trip to Puwan Stadium to face Dalian Aerbin in Super League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Thursday 29 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Dalian Aerbin's overall Super League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Puwan Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shanghai Shenhua have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Dalian Aerbin against 1.60 for Shanghai Shenhua. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Dalian Aerbin 0W, Shanghai Shenhua 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2021, ended 2–4 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dalian Aerbin — key trading statistics (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Shanghai Shenhua — key trading statistics (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 51% versus Shanghai Shenhua 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 49% | Shanghai Shenhua 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.46 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.149 / defence 1.012 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.130 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.266. Data: 31 Dalian Aerbin games / 31 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 37% | Draw 27% | Shanghai Shenhua 36%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Aerbin 70% | Shanghai Shenhua 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 37% | Draw 27% | Shanghai Shenhua 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.46 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 1.149 / def 1.012 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.130 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Shanghai Shenhua xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:30 on Thursday 29 September 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Dalian Aerbin 1 - 2 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 37% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (2 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 0W | Draws 0 | Shanghai Shenhua 2W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dalian Aerbin's attack rating (1.15) and Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shanghai Shenhua's attack (1.13x) against Dalian Aerbin's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
37%
2.71
27%
3.70
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.91
1.45
Shanghai Shenhua xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
9%
11.52
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.45 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dalian Aerbin come into this having played 39 games, going 11W 9D 19L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shanghai Shenhua sit at 1.79 PPG from 39 outings (19W 13D 7L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Dalian Aerbin's home form reads 6W 4D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Shanghai Shenhua have taken 1.50 points per game from 18 outings (7W 6D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.49 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 11W 9D 19L in their last 39 games (1.08 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 19W 13D 7L in their last 39 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.22 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Aerbin have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Shanghai Shenhua — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Dalian Aerbin
0
Draws
4
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 6 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 56%, Shanghai Shenhua 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dalian Aerbin) and 39% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Dalian Aerbin have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Shanghai Shenhua?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 61% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 39% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shanghai Shenhua defy the odds to beat Dalian Aerbin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Dalian Aerbin 1-2 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.46 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.45 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 1.15 / defence 1.01 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.13 / defence 0.91, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 37% | Draw 27% | Shanghai Shenhua 36%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Shanghai Shenhua win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 49%, Shanghai Shenhua 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.