Chongqing Lifan 1-5 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chongqing Lifan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Chongqing Lifan welcome Guangzhou Evergrande FC to Huadu Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 August 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Chongqing Lifan have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Lifan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Huadu Stadium, Chongqing Lifan have gone 3W 1D 2L this season (6 games, 1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Chongqing Lifan are significantly better at Huadu Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's away record: 2W 2D 2L from 6 road trips in Super League this season (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.17 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Guangzhou Evergrande FC — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Chongqing Lifan, 1 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2021, ended 1–3 with Guangzhou Evergrande FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chongqing Lifan trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chongqing Lifan 50% versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chongqing Lifan 58% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Lifan 1.40 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Lifan attack 1.112 / defence 1.160 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.230 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.003 / away 1.276. Guangzhou Evergrande FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Chongqing Lifan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Guangzhou Evergrande FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.230 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 12 Chongqing Lifan games / 12 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chongqing Lifan 27% | Draw 29% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Lifan 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guangzhou Evergrande FC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guangzhou Evergrande FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chongqing Lifan 33% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Lifan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Huadu Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Lifan 27% | Draw 29% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 66% | xG Chongqing Lifan 1.40 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Lifan attack 1.112 / def 1.160 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.230 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.003 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou Evergrande FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Chongqing Lifan xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Lifan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Chongqing Lifan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Huadu Stadium.
What was the final score in Chongqing Lifan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Chongqing Lifan 1 - 5 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Chongqing Lifan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Huadu Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Lifan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Chongqing Lifan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Lifan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Lifan a 27% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou Evergrande FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Lifan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Chongqing Lifan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Lifan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Lifan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Record (1 meetings): Chongqing Lifan 0W | Draws 0 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1W.
What form are Chongqing Lifan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Chongqing Lifan (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chongqing Lifan's attack rating (1.11) and Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack versus Chongqing Lifan's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou Evergrande FC Win
27%
3.76
29%
3.46
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Chongqing Lifan xG
Total xG
3.22
1.82
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
16%
6.18
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
4%
23.24
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chongqing Lifan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Chongqing Lifan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Chongqing Lifan and 1.82 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Chongqing Lifan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Chongqing Lifan have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 3W 2D 7L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Chongqing Lifan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's form line: 7W 3D 2L from 12 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Guangzhou Evergrande FC are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chongqing Lifan.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chongqing Lifan have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Chongqing Lifan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Chongqing Lifan are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou Evergrande FC are on 2.42 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chongqing Lifan
Blended
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chongqing Lifan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in coming into this match?
Chongqing Lifan have gone 3W 2D 7L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 7W 3D 2L in their last 12 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chongqing Lifan at home or Guangzhou Evergrande FC away?
Chongqing Lifan's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chongqing Lifan at home: 1.67 PPG; Guangzhou Evergrande FC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Chongqing Lifan or Guangzhou Evergrande FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chongqing Lifan have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chongqing Lifan
0
Draws
2
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Lifan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Chongqing Lifan have won 0, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chongqing Lifan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2021, when Chongqing Lifan 1-5 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Who has won more matches between Chongqing Lifan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chongqing Lifan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chongqing Lifan 33%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Chongqing Lifan) and 50% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chongqing Lifan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 33%; Chongqing Lifan have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chongqing Lifan home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chongqing Lifan play Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Chongqing Lifan's recent matches and 50% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chongqing Lifan vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Chongqing Lifan's matches and 50% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's.
Do Chongqing Lifan and Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to score early?
Chongqing Lifan have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guangzhou Evergrande FC run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Chongqing Lifan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Chongqing Lifan 1-5 at Huadu Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chongqing Lifan 1.40 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.82 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Guangzhou Evergrande FC outscored their 1.82 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chongqing Lifan attack 1.11 / defence 1.16 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.23 / defence 1.25, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chongqing Lifan 27% | Draw 29% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 44%, with Guangzhou Evergrande FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chongqing Lifan 58%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chongqing Lifan's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Guangzhou Evergrande FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Chongqing Lifan (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.