Changchun Yatai 1-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Tianjin Teda travel to Changchun's People Stadium to take on Changchun Yatai. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 April 2023, 08:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Changchun Yatai stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Changchun's People Stadium, Changchun Yatai have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Changchun's People Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Tianjin Teda are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Changchun Yatai's 30% rate and Tianjin Teda's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Tianjin Teda 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 2–3 with Tianjin Teda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Changchun Yatai in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 53% versus Tianjin Teda 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 51% | Tianjin Teda 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.31 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.140 / defence 1.071 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.086 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.218. Data: 37 Changchun Yatai games / 36 Tianjin Teda games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 32% | Draw 30% | Tianjin Teda 37%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Tianjin Teda 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 58% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Changchun Yatai 30% | Tianjin Teda 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 32% | Draw 30% | Tianjin Teda 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.31 / Tianjin Teda 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.140 / def 1.071 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.086 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Tianjin Teda xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 32% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda?
Record (4 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 2 | Tianjin Teda 1W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 1.14x the league average against Tianjin Teda's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
32%
3.08
30%
3.32
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.73
1.42
Tianjin Teda xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
8%
12.71
10%
9.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.42 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Changchun Yatai have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 21W 17D 17L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 19W 13D 23L from 55 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Changchun Yatai on 1.45 PPG, Tianjin Teda on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Changchun Yatai have posted 1.52 PPG from 27 outings (11W 8D 8L).
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 9W 7D 11L from 27 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.15 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 21W 17D 17L in their last 55 games (1.45 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.52 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Jul 2021, when Changchun Yatai won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
6
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Tianjin Teda 2-2 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 48%, Tianjin Teda 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Changchun Yatai) and 37% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 33%; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 30% of games; Tianjin Teda in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 41% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 37% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Teda drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.31 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.42 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.14 / defence 1.07 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.09 / defence 0.89, drawn from 37/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 32% | Draw 30% | Tianjin Teda 37%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 51%, Tianjin Teda 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.45 PPG, Tianjin Teda 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.