Changchun Yatai 1-4 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Changchun Yatai take on SHANGHAI SIPG.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Changchun's People Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 9 October 2022 at 08:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Changchun Yatai have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai at Changchun's People Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
SHANGHAI SIPG's overall Super League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Changchun Yatai, 1.80 for SHANGHAI SIPG — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Changchun Yatai lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Changchun Yatai winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Changchun Yatai — key trading statistics (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
SHANGHAI SIPG — key trading statistics (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 56% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 51% | SHANGHAI SIPG 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 0.85 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.816 / defence 0.764 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.909 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.257. Changchun Yatai's defence rating of 0.764 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Changchun Yatai games / 33 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 32% | Draw 34% | SHANGHAI SIPG 34%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Changchun Yatai's lower xG of 0.85 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.73 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates are neutral: Changchun Yatai 50% | SHANGHAI SIPG 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 32% | Draw 34% | SHANGHAI SIPG 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Changchun Yatai 0.85 / SHANGHAI SIPG 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.816 / def 0.764 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.909 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
0.87
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 4 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 32% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (2 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 1 | SHANGHAI SIPG 0W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Changchun Yatai's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (0.91x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.08
34%
2.94
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
1.73
0.87
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
3.08
32%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.98
66%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
14%
6.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8 | 15.5 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 0.87 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 41 games, going 17W 14D 10L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SHANGHAI SIPG sit at 1.93 PPG from 41 outings (23W 10D 8L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 1.93 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 9W 6D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, SHANGHAI SIPG have taken 1.63 points per game from 19 outings (8W 7D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.56 scored and 0.66 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 17W 14D 10L in their last 41 games (1.59 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 23W 10D 8L in their last 41 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.74 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 18 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 4-0 on 31 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
8
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-3 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 53%, SHANGHAI SIPG 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Changchun Yatai) and 47% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; SHANGHAI SIPG in 32%; SHANGHAI SIPG in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Changchun Yatai's games and 58% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 47% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Changchun Yatai 1-4 at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 0.85 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 0.87 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 0.87 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.82 / defence 0.76 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.91 / defence 0.81, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 32% | Draw 34% | SHANGHAI SIPG 34%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 51%, SHANGHAI SIPG 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.59 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SHANGHAI SIPG win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.