Changchun Yatai 0-0 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Changchun Yatai welcome Shanghai Shenhua to Changchun's People Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 3 November 2022 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Changchun Yatai — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai's home record at Changchun's People Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Changchun's People Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shanghai Shenhua stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Changchun Yatai) versus 1.90 (Shanghai Shenhua). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Changchun Yatai, 0 for Shanghai Shenhua and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Changchun Yatai trading profile (44 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (44 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 54% versus Shanghai Shenhua 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 50% | Shanghai Shenhua 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 0.79 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.706 / defence 0.882 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.992 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.303. Changchun Yatai's attack strength of 0.706 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Changchun Yatai games / 36 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 25% | Draw 31% | Shanghai Shenhua 44%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.93 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates are neutral: Changchun Yatai 40% | Shanghai Shenhua 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 3 Nov 2022, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 25% | Draw 31% | Shanghai Shenhua 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Changchun Yatai 0.79 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.706 / def 0.882 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.992 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Shanghai Shenhua xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 07:30 on Thursday 3 November 2022 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Changchun Yatai 0 - 0 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 25% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (3 meetings): Changchun Yatai 2W | Draws 1 | Shanghai Shenhua 0W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Changchun Yatai's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Shanghai Shenhua's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
25%
3.94
31%
3.24
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
1.93
1.14
Shanghai Shenhua xG
3.94
25%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
8%
12.31
20%
5.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 16.5 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.14 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 18W 14D 12L from 44 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 8L across 44 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Changchun Yatai on 1.55 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 8W 6D 6L from 20 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record stands at 8W 7D 5L across 20 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.43 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 18W 14D 12L in their last 44 games (1.55 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 21W 15D 8L in their last 44 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.50 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 June 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Changchun Yatai
3
Draws
5
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 29 June 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-2 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 55%, Shanghai Shenhua 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Changchun Yatai) and 40% (Shanghai Shenhua).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Shanghai Shenhua?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Changchun Yatai's games and 60% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 40% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Changchun Yatai's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua finished level at 0-0 at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 0.79 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.14 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.71 / defence 0.88 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.99 / defence 0.81, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 25% | Draw 31% | Shanghai Shenhua 44%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 50%, Shanghai Shenhua 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (44 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (44 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.55 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.