Changchun Yatai 1-0 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Changchun Yatai take on Shanghai Shenhua.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Changchun Yatai welcome Shanghai Shenhua to Kunshan Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 17 May 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 0.70 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.689 / defence 0.919 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.018 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 0.853 / away 1.130. Changchun Yatai's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Changchun Yatai games / 4 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 20% | Draw 40% | Shanghai Shenhua 40%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 5.00 | Draw 2.50 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.50. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 20% and away win at 40% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 17 May 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 20% | Draw 40% | Shanghai Shenhua 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 37% | xG Changchun Yatai 0.70 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.689 / def 0.919 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.018 / def 1.189 | league avg home 0.853 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Shanghai Shenhua xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 17 May 2021 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 0 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 20% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 40% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Changchun Yatai's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Shanghai Shenhua's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.70. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.6%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
20%
4.99
40%
2.48
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
1.76
1.06
Shanghai Shenhua xG
4.99
20%
Home win
2.48
40%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
7%
14.38
20%
5.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 18.3 | 9.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.06 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Pre-Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 June 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Changchun Yatai
3
Draws
5
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 29 June 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-2 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Changchun Yatai defy the odds to beat Shanghai Shenhua 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 0.70 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.06 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shanghai Shenhua landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.69 / defence 0.92 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.02 / defence 1.19, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 20% | Draw 40% | Shanghai Shenhua 40%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Changchun Yatai win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.