Changchun Yatai 1-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Changchun Yatai host Qingdao Jonoon at Changchun's People Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 23 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Changchun Yatai have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Changchun Yatai's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Changchun's People Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Changchun's People Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.80 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.144 / defence 1.301 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.840 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.288. Qingdao Jonoon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Changchun Yatai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Changchun Yatai games / 8 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 44% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Jonoon 27%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Changchun Yatai are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Changchun's People Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 44% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Jonoon 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 66% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.80 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.144 / def 1.301 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.840 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Qingdao Jonoon xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:35 on Tuesday 23 May 2023 at Changchun's People Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Changchun's People Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 44% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Changchun Yatai home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Changchun Yatai's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Qingdao Jonoon's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
44%
2.28
29%
3.44
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
3.21
1.41
Qingdao Jonoon xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
24%
4.08
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
11%
9.33
4%
22.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.41 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Pre-Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2024, when Changchun Yatai won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 6 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 3, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when Changchun Yatai 2-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Qingdao Jonoon?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Changchun Yatai edge out Qingdao Jonoon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 at Changchun's People Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.80 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.41 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Jonoon landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.14 / defence 1.30 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.84 / defence 1.23, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 44% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Jonoon 27%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.