Changchun Yatai 0-2 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC meet at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium in Super League, Championship Round - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 December 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Form
Changchun Yatai (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Changchun Yatai have gone 5W 3D 0L this season (8 games, 2.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.38 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 3L across 8 road games this term (1.38 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.38 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.30 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Changchun Yatai half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 56% versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 56% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.47 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.106 / defence 0.981 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.159 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Changchun Yatai games / 14 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 36% | Draw 29% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Changchun Yatai at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Changchun Yatai 38% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 36% | Draw 29% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.47 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.106 / def 0.981 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.159 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Changchun Yatai 0 - 2 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 36% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (1.11) and Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack (1.16x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
36%
2.78
29%
3.50
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.94
1.46
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
8%
12.00
8%
12.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.46 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Changchun Yatai have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 9W 5D 2L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's form line: 9W 4D 3L from 16 games, 1.94 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 1.94 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Changchun Yatai have posted 2.25 PPG from 8 outings (5W 3D 0L).
On the road, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 3W 2D 3L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou Evergrande FC are on 2.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attacking output running into Changchun Yatai's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 9W 5D 2L in their last 16 games (2.00 PPG), while Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 9W 4D 3L in their last 16 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Guangzhou Evergrande FC away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 2.25 PPG; Guangzhou Evergrande FC away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Guangzhou Evergrande FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Changchun Yatai won 1-4 on 27 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guangzhou Evergrande FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
2
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 December 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-4 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 38%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Changchun Yatai) and 50% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 50% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 50% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Changchun Yatai 0-2 at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium, Championship Round - 3, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.47 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.46 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Changchun Yatai fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.11 / defence 0.98 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.15, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 36% | Draw 29% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 35%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Guangzhou Evergrande FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 56%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 2.00 PPG, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guangzhou Evergrande FC win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.