Changchun Yatai 2-0 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Changchun Yatai take on Beijing Guoan.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Thursday 22 July 2021 at 09:30 UTC.
Form
Changchun Yatai (all games): 2W 3D 1L across 6 Super League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets from 6 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Changchun Yatai have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Changchun Yatai's home record at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium: 1W 2D 0L from 3 Super League appearances (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 3 home games (100%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
Beijing Guoan's overall Super League record this term: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games (1.67 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Beijing Guoan have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.67 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Changchun Yatai, 1.67 for Beijing Guoan — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Changchun Yatai half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 33% versus Beijing Guoan 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 33% | Beijing Guoan 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 0.89 xG and Beijing Guoan 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.820 / defence 0.917 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.896 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 0.856 / away 1.201. Beijing Guoan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing Changchun Yatai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Changchun Yatai games / 6 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 27% | Draw 40% | Beijing Guoan 32%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 3.70 | Draw 2.50 | Beijing Guoan 3.12. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.88 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 0% | Beijing Guoan 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Jul 2021, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 27% | Draw 40% | Beijing Guoan 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 41% | xG Changchun Yatai 0.89 / Beijing Guoan 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.820 / def 0.917 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.896 / def 1.273 | league avg home 0.856 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Beijing Guoan xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 09:30 on Thursday 22 July 2021 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Changchun Yatai 2 - 0 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 27% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 32% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 0.82x the league average against Beijing Guoan's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (0.90x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.64
40%
2.50
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
1.88
0.99
Beijing Guoan xG
3.64
27%
Home win
2.50
40%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
10%
9.76
13%
7.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 15.1 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 0.99 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 2W 3D 1L from 6 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 2L across 6 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 1.67 for Beijing Guoan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beijing Guoan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Changchun Yatai are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games; Beijing Guoan in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Early Season
Beijing Guoan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.67 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beijing Guoan go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 8-1 on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
7
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 2, Beijing Guoan have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Changchun Yatai 0-4 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Changchun Yatai tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Changchun Yatai) and 67% (Beijing Guoan) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Changchun Yatai and 67% for Beijing Guoan.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; Beijing Guoan in 33%; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Beijing Guoan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 67% of Beijing Guoan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 67% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Beijing Guoan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Beijing Guoan 2-0 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 0.89 xG and Beijing Guoan 0.99 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Changchun Yatai beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beijing Guoan landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.82 / defence 0.92 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.90 / defence 1.27, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 27% | Draw 40% | Beijing Guoan 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Changchun Yatai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 33%, Beijing Guoan 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.50 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.